Forecasting extreme weather events

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), wind storms, heatwaves, floods and droughts are all likely to become more common and more severe in the future. Drawing on our strengths in monitoring and modelling, we specialise in forecasting extreme weather events and minimising their impact.

We are able to:

• Combine data from diverse sources and using multiple models to understand and predict extreme weather  events
• Develop new analysis techniques and models, including a state-of-the-art land surface model
• Using satellite data and past climate records to understand the interactions between the land surface and atmosphere, and their likely impact on future climates
• We are working with partners across Africa and Asia to improve observation, analysis and modelling of extreme weather events. 

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In the Sahel region of Africa, the vast majority of flash floods are due to intense rain within long-lived mesoscale  convective systems, which have tripled in frequency over the last 35 years, and appear to be linked to global warming. Civil protection authorities and on-the-ground responders in the Sahel need improved early warning of the likelihood of flood impact from national meteorological and hydrological services.

UKCEH scientists led the NFLICS project, which addressed this need by developing and testing automated approaches to predicting flood impacts. We worked in partnership to co-develop products and processes that met the demands of users and helped them to safeguard their communities.

Our work drew on state-of-the-art research findings from satellite analysis that identified land surface drivers of extreme mesoscale convective systems rainfall.

Interactions between the land surface and atmosphere play an important role in weather and climate. The PORCELAIN  project, led by UKCEH, used a combination of innovative observation-based analyses, and analysis of existing and new atmospheric simulations using multiple climate models, to gain new understanding of land-atmosphere interactions and their influence on the East Asian monsoon.

The project tested new process representations of plant physiology, soil hydrology and irrigation, and quantified their  impacts on coupled simulations on weather prediction and climate change time scales. It led to the creation of new tools for evaluating land-atmosphere interactions.

Our scientists collaborated with Chinese partners and UK partners from the University of Reading, within the Newton Fund Climate Science for Service Partnership China run by the UK’s Met Office.

Building on the work carried out as part of the NFLICS project (see above), UKCEH carried out further research into the  ways in which land surface conditions affect the direction and intensity of megastorms after they have formed as part of  the AMMA 2050 project, funded by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and NERC.

Our scientists developed online tools to better forecast the path and strength of an approaching storm, which are now  used to inform alert systems for communities across Africa, providing them with up to six hours’ warning.

This includes in Senegal, where UKCEH is working with the national meteorological service, ANACIM, to see how useful very short-term forecasts are for local emergency responses.

AMMA 2050 website >