New research shows that the damaging fires during the UK’s record-breaking 2022 heatwave were made at least six times more likely due to human-caused climate change.
That summer saw temperatures in this country hit 40°C for the first time and left firefighters stretched, with London Fire Brigade having its ‘busiest day since the Second World War’.
The study, involving the Met Office, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and the University of Exeter, highlights how rising temperatures and drier conditions driven by climate change, are dramatically increasing the risk of extreme fire weather in the UK. England emerged as the most vulnerable UK nation in the paper, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
The researchers used modelling to simulate a climate without human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and then compared this with the present-day climate. They looked at how changes in the weather affected the danger fires posed – how far they were likely to spread and intensify – once they were ignited.
A warning for the future
The study emphasises that climate change is not just a future concern but a present-day reality, with fire risks rising in tandem with global temperatures.
Study co-author Dr Douglas Kelley, a land surface modeller at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), said: “Our findings underscore a stark reality: climate change is amplifying fire risks right now, even here in the UK. Wildfires will pose an increasing risk to people, property, infrastructure and ecosystems as temperatures continue to rise.”
Dr Kelley added that while there are not sufficiently large, continuous, areas of woodland in the UK to result in wildfires on the scale of those occurring in parts of western America, the recent devastating events in Los Angeles provide a reminder of the dangers of fires.
Adapting to increased risks
One of the paper’s key messages is the urgent need to adapt to rising fire risks while limiting further warming. An urgent and significant reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions would limit the increase in future fire risks, while targeted adaptation measures could help communities and ecosystems cope with the escalating threat.
Some actions to reduce fire risks could include enhanced land management, building away from areas at high risk, enhancing detection of fires or public campaigns to reduce accidental fires.
The researchers used advanced climate models and a ‘fire weather index’ - an indicator of hot, dry, windy weather conditions associated with fires - to assess the risk of extreme fire weather conditions in 2022. By analysing historical data and future scenarios, the study provides critical insights into how fire danger is increasing due to climate change.
Further information
Burton et al. 2025. Very high fire danger in UK in 2022 at least 6 times more likely due to human-caused climate change, Environmental Research Letters. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/adb764
Dr Kelley's work for the study was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council as part of the LTSM2 TerraFIRMA project and NC-International programme delivering National Capability.
The second annual State of Wildfire report by the Met Office, the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, the University of East Anglia and ECMWF, will be published this summer. It will analyse how climate change and human activity influenced wildfires in the 20024-25 fire season, including the recent Los Angeles fires..
In a 2022 report for UNEP, scientists projected there would be a global increase of extreme fires of up to 14 per cent by 2030, 30 per cent by 2050 and 50 per cent by the end of the century if there was not significant action on emissions.