The Climate Change Committee (CCC), the UK’s independent climate advisors, this week set out the Seventh Carbon Budget presenting a pathway to decarbonisation in the UK.
The CCC advises that by 2040, UK emissions should be cut to 13% of their 1990 levels to stay on track for net zero by 2050. It sets out how this is feasible sector by sector and outlines decisions needed to ensure success over the coming years.
Scientists at UKCEH contributed modelling and analysis on how ambitious land-based mitigation actions could cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from UK land by 2050 while increasing timber and biomass fuel production.
Land-based mitigation options examined were:
- Woodland creation and improved management of existing forests
- Establishment of perennial energy crops
- Restoration of degraded peatlands
- Sustainable management of cropland on organic soil
- Increased areas of agroforestry and hedgerows
These options were combined in the CCC’s Business As Usual and Balanced Pathways, constrained by the availability of suitable land. In the Balanced Pathway, land use across the UK is transformed to expand measures which sequester and reduce emissions.
Peatland restoration, bioenergy crops, and forestry improvements had the biggest impact on reducing emissions compared to the Business-as-Usual scenario.
The effectiveness of the measures is highly dependent on where they are in the landscape, and risk of failure is high if they are applied in an unsuitable location or if the measures lack resilience to future climate change.
Dr Amanda Thomson, lead scientist at UKCEH on land-based Greenhouse Gas Inventories, said: “The Seventh Carbon Budget sets out an ambitious but achievable pathway to net zero in 2050.
Land-based mitigation actions will have many co-benefits for biodiversity and water, soil and air quality beyond carbon sequestration and emissions reductions.”
UKCEH’s detailed land use modelling report will be published in May 2025 alongside the CCC’s reports for each Devolved Administration.
Read the CCC’s report on the Seventh Carbon Budget.