UKCEH climate modeller Dr Chris Huntingford is part of a team awarded £5 million by the Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA) to investigate early warning signs of climate 'tipping points'.
The University of Exeter-led project, Advanced Tipping Point Early Warning (AdvanTip), will focus on the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre, an ocean current system that some climate simulations predict could tip for a relatively low amount of extra global warming.
A tipping point occurs when a small change sparks an often rapid and irreversible transformation. AdvanTip will look for a breakthrough in early warning of tipping points by combining new theoretical insights, artificial intelligence, and improved understanding of physical systems.
"Before a tipping point happens, we can identify signs that a system is becoming less stable", said project lead Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter's Global Systems Institute. "While we have identified signs of a 'critical slowdown' in the Subpolar Gyre, we have yet to find reliable signals in all models.”
The Subpolar Gyre is a northern part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a large system of rotating currents in the Atlantic Ocean that plays a crucial role in regulating regional and global climate.
Collapse of the Subpolar Gyre – potentially triggered by melting Arctic ice – could fundamentally alter conditions in parts of Europe. In the UK it could mean more extreme weather patterns with hotter summers and colder winters.
Dr Huntingford said: "Identifying early warning signs of tipping points is crucial for adapting to and mitigating the worst impacts of climate change. This collaboration allows us to develop new modelling and computational methods to better understand tipping point dynamics.
"Although the focus is on the Subpolar Gyre, we will work hard to ensure that our theory-led development of warning systems can be extended to other potential tipping points in the climate system."
The AdvanTip team also includes researchers from the University of Leicester, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the University of Bordeaux and Utrecht University.
The funding is part of ARIA's Forecasting Tipping Points programme.
See the University of Exeter news story about AdvanTip.
