23.10.2024

Climate change has significantly increased the amount of land burned by wildfires across the world, according to the most robust study of its kind.

An international research team, including the Met Office, Vrije Universiteit Brussel and the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), used a novel combination of advanced modelling and satellite images for the study. Its findings, published in Nature Climate Change, showed that the amount of burned area is, on average, around 16% greater than it would be if the world’s climate was similar to pre-industrial times. Central Australia, California and Siberia are among the areas that have seen the largest increases in burned area.

Growing threat to people and nature

In recent years, there have been record-breaking wildfires in some countries like Canada, Greece and Hawaii. Scientists have warned that as global temperatures rise, wildfires will become more frequent and intense, increasing the threats to lives, property and biodiversity. 

Hotter temperatures and lower rainfall are drying out soils and vegetation faster, meaning they are more likely to burn. These factors, along with higher atmospheric carbon dioxide in some places, are also increasing plant growth, providing more fuel for fires. 

Cracking the problem

UKCEH land surface modeller Dr Douglas Kelley, a co-author of the study, explains: “The question of how climate change influences global burned area seems so obvious, yet until now we’ve struggled to give a confident answer. By blending fire models with real-world data, we’ve finally cracked it – and it’s a game-changer for understanding global fire risks.”

The new research combined two decades of satellite observations with sophisticated computer and statistical models that simulated wildfire conditions with and without climate change. It provides a crucial framework for better understanding the complex drivers of global fire activity. 

The role of human activity 

As the study shows, there is a complex interaction between climate change and human activity in shaping fire patterns globally. The increase in wildfires and damage in some regions is masked by an overall global reduction in burned area due to landscape changes. Agriculture and urbanisation in some areas, particularly in Northern Africa and South American savannas and throughout India, has resulted in fewer and smaller forested areas.

Such human activity reduces the amount of burned area from fire by almost one-fifth in some areas, particularly those with fragmented landscapes. However, the new study shows that even here, the amount of burned area is still significantly more than it would have been without climate change.

Further information

Burton, Lampe et al. 2024. Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change. Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w

This study is the latest in a series of recent studies involving UKCEH and the Met Office focusing on understanding and addressing the growing threat of fires in a warming world: