• Advanced modelling provides new understanding of why there are a range of species
• Findings highlight sensitivity of precious ecosystem now threatened due to human activities
The Amazon rainforest is home to a remarkable variety of plants and animals not found anywhere else on Earth, with some species only located in certain areas, but the reason for this has perplexed and divided scientists for decades.
Now a new international study, led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), challenges traditional thinking about how the Amazon evolved during the last Ice Age, which spanned the period between around 2.6 million and 11,700 years ago.
It demonstrates the world’s largest tropical rainforest is more sensitive to environmental change than we previously thought, providing a further warning about how the ongoing, large-scale, rapid human-driven climate and land use change presents a threat to this precious ecosystem.
Some scientists have argued that, during the last Ice Age, the Amazon had ‘forest islands’ (referred to as ‘refugia’) that were completely isolated, while others have suggested the forest was continuous, covering roughly the same area as today.
The findings of the UKCEH-led modelling study, published in the journal npj Biodiversity, indicate the answer is somewhere inbetween: woodlands and savannas connected these forest islands. The authors conclude this allowed some animals, which could travel further and were more adaptable, to move between them, while acting as a barrier to more specialist species that reply on a certain type of habitat.
The make-up of an area’s vegetation and climate influences natural evolution, meaning that while a species may originally have been present across a large area, different species gradually evolved in different areas as animals’ local environment changed.
Study lead author Dr Douglas Kelley, a Land Surface Modeller at UKCEH, explains: “Climate changes in the past played a huge role in shaping how the Amazon forest looked and where it grew. Similar changes are coming very soon and much faster.
“Previously, fluctuations in climate took thousands of years to happen, enabling plants and animals to adapt, but now significant global warming is happening within decades due to increasing human-driven greenhouse gas emissions.”
The study involved UKCEH, the Ontario Forest Research Institute, Kiel University in Germany, the Met Office in the UK, INPA in Brazil and the Field Museum of Natural History in Chicago.
The team used a combination of advanced climate and vegetation modelling techniques with computer-based predictions of the type of plants that grew during the last Ice Age and their location, based on records of fossilised pollen from sediment. Previous research has largely used single research techniques.
The researchers say, unlike previous studies, they considered the gaps that would have existed between the areas where fossilised pollen has been found and whether animals would have been able to move between habitats.
Their advanced computer and statistical modelling indicated what type of vegetation would have grown there, verified by the type of plants recorded in any adjoining areas.
Lower carbon dioxide emissions during the last Ice Age restricted tree growth as did the colder, drier climate, with the dry conditions also causing more wildfires that destroyed many forested areas.
Research co-author Dr Hiromitsu Sato of the Ontario Forest Research Institute, says: "We believe our study, involving integrated modelling methods, provides the best evidence to date on the origins of the rich biodiversity in the Amazon.
"Using land surface modelling to provide crucial information on biodiversity is a new and very exciting innovation that could be used in future to investigate history of species where there is a shortage of data.”
The researchers’ next step is to explore when and where species within groups like monkeys, antbirds, frogs, butterflies, and lianas might have diverged from one another over thousands of years
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Paper information
Kelley et al. 2024. Niche-dependent forest and savanna fragmentation in Tropical South America during the Last Glacial Maximum. npj Biodiversity. DOI: 10.1038/s44185-024-00056-4. Open access.
Media enquiries
For interviews and further information, please contact Simon Williams, Media Relations Officer at UKCEH, via simwil@ceh.ac.uk or +44 (0)7920 295384. AI-generated images of what the different ecosystems would have looked like is available on request.
About the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
The UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) is a leading research institute employing over 500 of the world’s best environmental scientists. We exist to provide the vital environmental science that governments, businesses, NGOs, and researchers rely on to meet the great challenges of our time, contributing substantially to achieving UN Sustainable Development Goals.
UKCEH undertakes land surface science for climate change prediction, adaptation and mitigation.
ceh.ac.uk/ @UK_CEH / LinkedIn: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology