Dr. Adam Griffin

Adam is a member of the Hydrological Forecasting group at UKCEH in Wallingford where he provides statistical expertise, and is leader of the Flood Estimation Team. His current role involves leading the development of flood frequency estimation methods for use across the UK, making use of local data, historic data, and climate projections through generalised regression models. His team also researches methods regarding estimating non-stationary flood regimes, particularly those trends linked to climate change (AquaCAT, UKCRP; CANARI, UK National Capability; CHAMFER, UK National Capability). 

Adam is an expert in extreme value analysis with a focus on estimation of long-return flood events, improving methods through the application of spatial data to better describe dependence between simultaneous extreme events, now and in the future. He develops methods for estimating flood frequency and magnitude statistics, for applications in flood risk and defence management. He also researches methods regarding estimating non-stationary flood regimes, particularly those trends linked to climate change. Adam has co-supervised an undergraduate project on historical data (NERC GW4+ REP) and advised an MSc student during dissertation on comparisons of extreme value distributions.

Adam’s PhD in mathematics and statistics included experience in Monte Carlo methods (SMC, MCMC, ABC) and stochastic epidemiology. He also developed SMC methods for conditional processes on reducible state spaces.