Professional summary

Paula is Principal Natural Capital Scientist and Professor of Land and Water Modelling at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) based at the Lancaster site. She also is co-director of the Centre for Excellence in Environmental Data Science, a joint venture between UKCEH and Lancaster University. She has a BSc in Statistics and Geography from the University of Salford, a MSc in Operational Research from Lancaster University and a DPhil in Environmental Science from the University of Oxford. Paula specialises in the generation and integration of diverse sources of knowledge using participatory approaches for supporting evidence-based decision-making. She is an internationally recognised expert in scenarios and integrated models with over 150 peer-reviewed papers and book chapters. She has led numerous large, interdisciplinary projects, including coordinating three EU projects on ecosystem services, and climate change impacts and adaptation.

She currently co-chairs the Intergovernmental science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Nexus Assessment on the interlinkages among biodiversity, water, food, health and climate change (2021-2024) and was a member of the IPBES Scenarios & Models Task Force (2020-2023) contributing to the development and testing of the Nature Futures Framework. She leads several integrated modelling projects, including the ERAMMP Integrated Modelling Platform for the Welsh Government and the UK country team of the global FABLE (Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-use & Energy) consortium of integrated modellers.

Selected publications

Mosnier Aline et al. , (2023), A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems. Environmental Research Letters, 18, http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc044

Harrison Paula A. et al. , (2018), Differences between low-end and high-end climate change impacts in Europe across multiple sectors. Regional Environmental Change, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1352-4

Harrison Paula A. et al. , (2019), Understanding high-end climate change: from impacts to co-creating integrated and transformative solutions. Regional Environmental Change, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01477-9

Harrison Paula A. et al. , (2019), Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes. Ecology and Society, 24, http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/es-10818-240227

Harrison Paula A. et al. , (2017), Selecting methods for ecosystem service assessment: a decision tree approach. Ecosystem Services, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.09.016

Harrison Paula A. et al. , (2016), Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3039

Durán América Paz et al. , (2023), Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures. Sustainability Science, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1

Jones Sarah K. et al. , (2023), Integrated modeling to achieve global goals: lessons from the Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-use, and Energy (FABLE) initiative. Sustainability Science, 18, 323-333, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11625-023-01290-8

Smith Alison C. et al. , (2023), Sustainable pathways towards climate and biodiversity goals in the UK: the importance of managing land-use synergies and trade-offs. Sustainability Science, 18, 521-538, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11625-022-01242-8

Harmáčková Zuzana V. et al. , (2022), Improving regional applicability of the UK shared socioeconomic pathways through iterative participatory co-design. Climate Risk Management, 37, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100452