The LTLS-FE project is divided into 3 work packages:
See below for a detailed breakdown of each work package:
The first work package of the project focuses on how different pollutants get into UK freshwaters.
This involves assessing the dominant pollutants affecting freshwaters through a combination of literature reviews and consultation with our Stakeholder Advisory Board about priority chemicals now and in the near future.
For these dominant pollutants we will model transport from terrestrial sources, be it point or diffuse, to rivers. This process will involve enhancing the already available LTLS-IM framework, to include developments made by the different partners and advances made through other projects. The output from the terrestrial soil and vegetation model will provide daily distributions of the pollutants that reach freshwater bodies.
The remaining focus of this work package is to collate historical data and construct the future scenarios. Historic datasets are essential for testing and assessing LTLS-FE freshwater simulations against historical observations, while the future scenarios underpin future drivers of pollutant inputs to freshwaters. Our scenarios link with the UK-SSPs and CHESS-SCAPE UK climate projections and will be co-derived with our Stakeholder Advisory Board.
To summarise, the outputs from WP1 are:
1) Assessment of dominant pollutants that affect UK river health
2) Estimates of diffuse and point sources of pollutants into rivers, including from groundwater
3) Future scenarios of spatially explicit trends in soil and water inputs of pollutants
The second work package focuses on modelling rivers: transport and fate of nutrients and pollutants and subsequent impact on freshwater ecology.
The modelling of the transportation uses the improved LTLS freshwater modelling framework, enhanced to include a larger range of pollutants. We will use the future scenarios from WP1 to drive this model from 1980-2080. From these runs we will be able to identify the trends in concentrations, highlighting the extremes that may result in an acute biological response. Source apportionment analysis will allow identification of which socio-economic changes in the scenarios, or which combination of changes, is having the largest impact on the water quality.
The freshwater simulations from these scenario runs will be analysed to assess the ecological impacts. Modelling of ecological responses to the estimated concentration changes will allow us to quantify the responses of both single species and whole-communities.
To summarise, the outputs from WP2 are:
1) Spatially-distributed scenarios of flow, pollutants, water temperature, pH and oxygen, including assessment against observations and an estimate of uncertainty
2) Associated predictions of ecological responses: from occurrences of individual taxa to wider community structure
The final work package will facilitate analysis and dissemination of results to support future adaptation and mitigation of risks.
Our projections will be made available to a range of key stakeholders. We will consult with our Stakeholder Advisory Board to guide us how best to communicate the scenarios. Currently we are planning an interactive web portal enabling users to interrogate results for their area/catchment/region for a range of ecological indices and future time-slices.
The data itself will be made publically available in the EIDC. Accompanying metadata and data papers will be published to maximise the usage of the data to others. The model code will also be made available in a public respository (GitHub). Where appropriate, model code will be incorporated into the Hydro-Jules model framework.
To summarise, the outputs from WP3 include:
1) Analysis and publications to support decision making in policy, planning and regulation
2) Open delivery of model code and datasets
3) An interactive web tool, designed with the needs of stakeholders in mind, to disseminate scenario results effectively