Scientific activities

Objective:

Develop a conceptual framework that enables rigorous interdisciplinary analysis of episodes of drought

Why: 

A structured method of analysing past droughts across the numerous sectors is challenging, using the conceptual framework should mean that all sectors use terms consistently and identify drivers, pressures and impacts of historic drought consistently. Currently there are no conceptual models of drought that describe interactions between hydrometerological and socio-economic drivers and environmental and societal impacts of droughts.

How: 

The Conceptual Framework enables a joint hydro-meteorological-social analysis of drought structures, providing a common terminology for the cross-disciplinary description and analysis of drought systems. Quantitative and qualitative primary empirical data about key UK drought events flesh out the meaning of the key concepts of the Framework, such as ‘drivers’ of drought, ‘responses’ to them and ‘impacts’ of droughts. It seeks to integrate in its analysis human actors’ perceptions and understandings of specific drought events with natural science accounts of drought. The former are captured through oral histories, analysis of newspaper reports and UK Parliamentary debates of drought events; the latter document how the weather, as well as the state of surface- and groundwater bodies contribute to, and change, during drought.

Output:

A conceptual framework for the joint hydro-meteorological-social analysis of drought. The conceptual framework provides an innovative take on existing ‘drivers’, ‘pressures’, ‘states’, ‘responses’ and ‘impacts’ (DPSIR) models that address the problem of how to describe, analyse and manage environmental governance challenges. More specifically, the framework developed in Historic Droughts defines ‘impacts’, ‘responses’ and ‘states’ with reference to linked natural-social worlds. This is different from some DPSIR models which define e.g. ‘responses’ mainly with reference to the social world (e.g. as human management responses to environmental governance challenges) and ‘states’ mainly with reference to the natural world (e.g. river flows) - for example, Rekolainen et al. 2003. Moreover, the Historic Droughts conceptual framework builds on and further develops existing DPSIR models by capturing that key elements, such as ‘drivers’, ‘responses’ and ‘impacts’ of drought act on different temporal and spatial scales. This helps to understand how environmental governance challenges, such as drought, evolve over time and how elements of drought systems may vary or remain constant at various geographical (e.g. the catchment), policy (e.g. the UK) and jurisdictional (e.g. England and Wales) spatial scales. The application of this framework is illustrated with reference to two major drought events (1976 and 2003-2006) in the UK in Lange et al. (2017).

Objective:

Compile environmental science, socio-economic and regulatory historical data related to drought the UK in a range of sectors

Why:

Without data for historic droughts we cannot apply and develop the Conceptual Framework or the Drought Inventory, both of which will aid a systems based understanding of droughts

How:

Compilation of data and metadata across each sector:

The characteristics of historic droughts will be reconstructed using meteorological (rainfall) and hydrological (river flow and groundwater levels) datasets using a novel modelling framework.

Public water supply systems will be reconstructed and their performance during past drought events assessed.  

Quantitative (e.g. yield data) and qualitative (e.g. survey results) will be combined to understand the impact of drought on the agricultural sector as well as how farmers have adapted their businesses to limit the impact of drought.

The evolution of the legal and economic regulatory framework for drought will be traced backwards to understand how the regulatory tools available to manage droughts have changed over time.

Oral histories and language analysis from historic and recent print media will capture the social and cultural aspects of drought.

Output:

Knowledge base of historic droughts in the UK covering a wide range of sectors, see the data page to see a list of available datasets

Objective:

Build a Drought Inventory for the UK, a knowledge base of past drought characteristics, impacts and responses

Why:

The Drought Inventory will provide a common reference for policymakers and regulators, water supply companies, agriculture and industry and will enable more consistent, transparent planning. This consistent information will enhance drought mitigation plans resulting in the improved long-term management of water resources.

How:

Bring together the cross-sectoral descriptions of drought and water scarcity in the UK, sectoral timelines and narrative chronologies developed in Task 2 in a fully searchable, visual database of historic droughts.

Output:

Drought Inventory for the UK

Example timelines of standardised drought indicators calculated using observed precipitation (top), river flow (middle) and groundwater level (bottom) data.

Objective:

Develop a systems-based understanding of drought, by drawing on the conceptual framework and Drought Inventory

Why:

To understand the interactions between social and environmental systems during drought and water scarcity events

How:

By applying the Conceptual Framework (developed in Task 1) to major drought events described in the Drought Inventory (developed in Task 3) to identify:

• Key interactions, the importance of interactions and their feedbacks in each event
• How interactions have changed over time
• How interactions have been influenced by events, society or the decision making processes

Output:

Common/significant system interactions during drought episodes, triggers and thresholds in drought histories and a description of the reasons behind changes in drought system dynamics over time

Objective:

Develop methods to support decision-making for future drought planning and management

Why:

To enable more effective and timely management interventions as droughts develop and as they end as interventions will be based on commonly agreed principles and evidence.

How:

Translate the new understanding of the drivers, impacts and system interactions of historic droughts into new drought management guidance by understanding how socio-economic context and water resource management practices contribute to drought and water scarcity vulnerability or resilience.

• Can we learn which management and regulatory strategies limit the impact of a given drought and water scarcity episode?
• Are there system interactions that can be exploited to be better inform drought planning, management and regulatory reform?
• What are the most effective forms of communication between the public and water resources managers that could enable the best outcomes in future drought and water scarcity episodes?

Output:

Guidance for improved drought management